2024 was historic, and 2025 is already in the record books regarding the rising coffee prices in the C market. Last year was tough because our hope was working against us. The table was set for rising prices: low yields in Vietnam, frost threats in Brazil and a marketplace where the biggest players are all buying spot and importers won’t even commit to long-term contracts, creating a primed situation for rising prices.
Still, we remained hopeful thinking, 'next week will be different' or 'it can’t go up forever.' Our own knowledge and experience was working against us as prices continued to rise. Occasionally, we would see a dip for a day or two and a frenzy would ensue, thus jumping the price right back up again. This was the pattern all year long.
2025 can be different. The lesson this year is about acceptance. You cannot control the ocean around you - all you can control is the attitude in which you enter the water.
C price is already at a historic high. The strategy of waiting until it falls to buy is over. If you wait too long you simply won’t have supply to purchase. The market remains inverted which means there is an opportunity to buy futures at a savings over todays price. Committing to coffee in the long term also relieves some of the pressure the importers are under and allows them secure physicals from origin.
We have to accept the C as it is and assume the worst. This means adjusting our selling price to account for the market conditions.
By accepting the reality of the cost and releasing this damaging hope you are able to plan properly. When the winds get strong, you don’t tighten your sheets, you let them out and you widen your target destination. This means, not only adjusting selling price, but including flexibility into your coffee program. This could include creating seasonal blends that allow you to purchase coffees based solely on price rather than sticking to a rigid flavor profile. Creating limited time offerings and promoting single origin coffees to alleviate sales of core blends. Communicating with your customers is always a key. Every wave we hit, they will feel the ripples of as well so it is important to keep your customers informed so they feel included and you continue to keep their trust. We’ve all noticed the price of eggs, we are not the only ones raising prices so they will understand.
These are just a few strategies for finding your way through these choppy waters. Everyone has a different journey and are working with different rigs. It would be great to hear some of your strategies as we navigate these uncharted waters.
Written by Jake Leonti, F+B Therapy
Mr. Leonti has worked in coffee for over twenty years with disciplines at every link of the value chain from barista to roasting, green grading and importing. Jake is a columnist at Santé Magazine, member of the Roasters Guild and current Director of Coffee at Gregorys Coffee in New York City.
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